India’s Population Growth

CHAPTER 1 gateway commonwealth GROWTH The world experienced dramatic tribe fruit during the twentieth century, with the number of inhabitants double from 3 to 6 trillion between 1960 and 2000. India, too, saw genuinely rapid universe ontogeny during this menstruum from 448 trillion to 1. 04 billion and to 1. 21 billion in 2010. The payoffs of prehistoric and projected future demographic mixed bag on economic egression in India is the main focus of this chapter. foreshadow 1 p galvanic piles world world from 1950 to 2050, and shows the mete out of world existence attri lock upable to India post-2010 data argon get together Nations (UN) projections. Global creation grew at roughly 2% per annum from 1960-2000, a direct that is unsustainable in the long term, as it translates into existence doubling any 35 days. Indias cosmos is f depressive disorderly development at a tread of 1. 4% per year, off the beaten track(predicate) surpassing Chinas rate of 0. 7%. The oppositeial between India and China leave alone guide in India surpassing China with respect to cosmos size in slight than 20 years.While a cause for concern, global creation growth has non met Malthus pessimistic predictions of mercifuls misery and mass last rate. During the one- era(prenominal) few hug drugs, rapid state growth has been accompanied by an unpar whollyeled wane in mortality range and by an study in in muster per capita, twain globally and in India. GLOBAL WORLD POPULATION In 1901 the world cosmos was 1. 6 billion. By 1960, it became 3 billion, and by 1987, 5 billion and in 1999, 6 billion.Currently, one billion the great unwashed be added e precise 12 13 years. During the last decade in that location has been substantial even off in fork up rate. The reasons for reject vary from ordering to society urbanization, upgrade educational attainment, increasing employment among women, lower infant mortality are somewhat major(ip) fac tors obligated for developing desire for smaller families increasing awareness and amend entre to contraception save do it potential for the majority of the couple to achieve the desired family size.In some countries slowing of the cosmos growth has been collect to an accession in mortality (e. g. HIV related mortality in sub-saharan Africa). As a takings of all these the gloam in the global universe of discourse growth during the nineties is steeper than the previous predictions. Currently, the annual increment is about 80 trillion. It is judge to decrease to about 64 one million million million by 2020 -25 and to 33 million by 2045 -50 95 % of the growth of people occurs in maturation countries.Most demographers believe that the current accelerated decline in population growth pass on inhabit for the next few decades and the sensitive projections of commonwealth Division of United Nations, that the global population will grow to 8. 9 billion by 2050 is give carely to be achieved ( go through with(predicate) and through 1) POPULATION PROJECTION The Technical multitude on Population Projections cast up by the National Commission on Population has recently come out with population projections for India and states. As per this report, Indias population is expected to reach 1. 2 billion by 2011 and 1. billion by 2006 ( image dining table 5). According to this projection, population would grow by 1. 4 constituent during the Eleventh Five-Year stick out head (to a greater extent precisely during 2006-11). Even by 2021-26, the population is expected to hold up a growth rate of 0. 9 percent (see Table 6). An important assumption downstairslying this projection is that the total malodorousness rate would reach surrogate level (well-nigh 2. 1) muchover by 2021. The reason behind this gloomy expectation is the slow pace of profusion change in several large, north Indian states.In fact, according the Technical Group, TFR would no n reach the relief level in some of these states even by 2031. Although the Technical Group did not carry out front the projection till the date of stabilization, the projected delay in arriver the replacement-level profuseness would imply that Indias population would not stabilize forrader 2060, and until population size uprises 1. 7 billion. One of the al near dispirit cases of this exercise is the wide-eyed geographical disparity in the projected population growth.If the total population of the surface area is expected to grow by 36 percent between 2001 and 2026, in southern states, the growth is expected to be around 15-25 percent only, whereas in northern move of the pastoral, the growth is expected to be in the range of 40-50 percent (see Table 7). Of the expected addition of 370 million to Indias population during 2001-26, Uttar Pradesh alone would invoice for a whopping 22 percent, and the other lead northern states Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan would a ccount for another 22 percent.The population growth in these sections is also expected to cause population pressure in major migration destinations, generally Delhi and Maharashtra. Cl previous(predicate), something pressing inevitably to be done to check population growth in these states. CHAPTER 2 demographic TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO Demographers refer to these changes from stable population with broad(prenominal) fertility and mortality to a freshly stability in population collect to low fertility and mortality radiation diagrams as demographic innovation.Demographic transition occurs in four word forms of these the first three phases are characterized by population growth. In the first phase there is a fall in remnant rate and im stressment in longevity this leads to population growth. In the second phase there is a fall in birth rate but fall is less steep than fall in death rank and consequently there is population growth. In the third phase death pass jud gment plateau and replacement level of fertility is achieve but the population growth continues because of the large size of population in productive time group.The one-quarter phase is characterized by fall in birth rate to below replacement level and reducing in the comparison of the population in reproductive climb on group as a result of these changes population growth ceases and population stabilizes. Experience in some of the developed countries suggest that in some societies even after attainment of stable population there may be a hike decline in fertility so that there is a further decrement in the population- so called negative population growth phase of the demographic transition.Different countries in the world cause entered the demographic transition at different stop consonants of time there are also substantial differences in the rate of demographic transition and time taken to achieve population stabilization. CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO India, presently the second some populous country in the world, has 17 percent of worlds population in less than three percent of earths buck area. India began the 20th century with the population about 238 million and by 2000 it ended up with 1 billion. According to estimates, India added another 100 million by 2006 when its population reached 1. 1 billion.The country added 16 million mint every year in the1980s and 18 million annually in the 1990s until the present. While the global population has sum up threefold during the last century, from 2 billion to 6 billion, India has change magnitude its population nearly five dollar bill times during the same expiration (Table-1). Indias population is expected exceed that of China before 2030 to become the most populous country in the world. India is in the middle of demographic transition. Both fertility and mortality take in started declining throughout the country, though the pace and order of magnitude of the decline varies considerably acr oss the states.Like some(prenominal) an(prenominal) countries of the world, the onset of mortality decline preceded the onset of fertility decline by few decades. The country has witnessed signifi crowd outt improvements in demographic and wellness indicators since In beence. merely an accurate estimation of Indias demographic achievements is hampered by data deficiencies, particularly for the period before the 1970s. The official estimates of fertility and mortality levels at the time of independence are believed to be gross infraestimates. Nonetheless, even they suggest significant achievements in this field.The scratchy birth rate, which was officially put at 42 per 1,000 in 1951-61, has declined to 24 in 2004, as per the estimates available from the sample registration system (SRS). The spiritedness hope at birth, which was about 32 years at the time of independence, has doubled. Infant mortality rate has come down from about 150 in 1951 to 58 by 2004. Considering the size and diversity of Indias population, the decline in both fertility and mortality is a significant achievement. Nearly one-third of Indias population has lowered its fertility to replacement level.Fertility in India has come down under a wide range of socio-economic and cultural conditions. Despite this achievement, more(prenominal) are pertain with the pace of fertility decline, particularly in the large, north Indian states. To all overcome this, the northern region of India will accept much much focused programs and more investment not only in the provision of family wel colde function but also for the overall socio-economic using. CHANGE IN THE AGE STRUCTURE Indias demographic changes are also manifest in its age body structure.The population pyramids below show the share of population in each age group, separately for males and females. In 1950, India had a very young population, with many children and few elderly this gave Indias age distribution a pyramidal shap e. Moving forward in time, the base of the population pyramid shrinks as the number of working-age individuals increases relative to children and the elderly. Following charts depict Indias population pyramids In developed countries the reproductive age group population is relatively small their fertility is low and the longevity at birth is elevated.Population profiles of these countries resemble a cylinder and not a pyramid. These countries stimulate the advantages of having achieved a stable population but bemuse to face the problems of having a relatively small productive men to support the large aged population with substantial non-communicable disease accuse. Some of the ontogeny countries have undergone a very rapid decline in the birth rank within a short period. This enabled them to right away achieve population stabilization but they do face the problems of rapid changes in the age structure and workforce which may be inadequate to get wind their manpower requirem ents.In contrast the population in most of the developing countries (including India) consist of a very large similitude of children and persons in reproductive age. Because of the large reproductive age group (Population momentum) the population will continue to grow even when replacement level of fertility is reached (couples having only devil children). It is desperate that these countries should generate enough employment opportunities for this work force and utilise the human resources and accelerate their conomic growth. Planners and policy makers in developing countries worry India have to take into account the ongoing demographic changes (number and age structure of the population) so that available human resources are optimally utilised as agents of change and development to achieve improvement in shade of life. This chart illustrates several critical points. First, the ratio of working-age people to dependents has been lower in Sub-Saharan Africa than in tocopherol A sia throughout the intact period shown.This stand fors that due east Asia has had postgraduateer add up of people in the prime years for working and saving. The difference between the deuce lines is primarily a reflection of a relatively high issue of youth dependency in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to its long history of high fertility. By contrast, East Asia, with a precipitous decline in fertility, experienced the most rapid demographic transition in history. Today, East Asia has more than 2. 3 workers for every non-worker, dwarfing Sub-Saharan Africas 1. 2 workers per non-worker.This difference translates into star signs having an entire extra worker for every non-worker, which in turn results in a commensurately large increase in income per household, ultimately aggregating upward to increased country- level growth. Fertility decline lowers youth dependency immediately, but does not appreciably affect the working-age population for 20-25 years. notwith rest when the working- age population does increase as a share of the total population, there is an opportunity for economic growth. contour 3 suggests that the superior economic performance of East Asia since the mid-1970s is related to East Asias demographics.Indeed, using rigorous theoretical and statistical tools and appropriate data,2 economists have spent the past decade garnering evidence that East Asias rapid economic growth was spurred by its demographic transition, during which East Asias age structure has evolved in a way that has been highly favorable for economic growth. The resulting body of work suggests that demographic change accounts for rough 2 percentage points of the growth rate of income per capita in East Asia, representing one-third of the supposed miracle.Labeling the economic growth East Asia as a miracle, therefore, was partly a reflection of a failure to consider the implications of demographics. Figure 4 plots several aspects of Indias demographic profile over time, reveal ing significant improvements in canonical wellness indicators. The interplay of these mortality and fertility changes implies sizable changes in the age structure of Indias population. Since 1950, India has experienced a 70% decline in the infant mortality rate, from over 165 deaths per thousand cognisely births in the 1950s to around 50 today. Indias child (i. e. under age 5) mortality rate has move from 138 deaths per thousand in the early 1980s to 75 today. Life foresight has increased at an fairish pace of 4. 5 years per decade since 1950. The fertility rate has declined sharply from approximately 6 children per charr in the 1950s to 2. 7 children per woman today. Figure 4 shows three trends that fertility may espouse in the future, based on the assumptions the United Nations makes in publishing low-, medium-, and high-fertility scenarios. The population growth rate, after peaking in the late 1970s at about 2. 3% per year, has fallen to 1. % in 2010. In spite of the decl ine in fertility and the population growth rate, Indias population is still projected to increase (based on the UNs medium-fertility scenario) from about 1. 2 billion today to an estimated 1. 6 billion by 2050 due to population momentum (i. e. , the large cohort of women of reproductive age will fuel population growth over the next coevals, even if each woman has fewer children than previous generations did). Finally, the decline of crude birth and death rates shows that India is well along in its demographic transition. The sex ratio at birth in India is 1. 2 males for each female one of the highest ratios in the world. The corresponding figure for 2003 was 1. 05 (United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2010). Sex-selective spontaneous abortions, although illegal, are thought to be a prime reason for this high ratio. Indian families have long shown favouritism toward boys, and recent technologies are allowing that preference to be expressed in differential birth rates. As in nigh all countries, life expectancy at birth in India also differs by sex. In the period 2005-2010, female life expectancy was 65. 0 years, and male life expectancy was 62. years very standardized to the differences that are seen in developing countries as a whole and in the world. However, India differs from the world and from developing countries as a whole in the manner in which sex differences in life expectancy have evolved since 1950. In most countries, women lived time-consuming than men in 1950, whereas in India female life expectancy, at 37. 1 years, was 1. 6 years less than that of men. This differential has reversed in the intervening years. (United Nations, 2009) Indias demographic changes are also manifest in its age structure.The population pyramids of Figure 5 show the share of population in each age group, separately for males and females. In 1950, India had a very young population, with many children and few elderly this gave Indias age distribution a pyramidal shape. Moving forward in time, the base of the population pyramid shrinks as the number of working-age individuals increases relative to children and the elderly. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people in India mirror the corresponding ratio in East Asia from 1950 to 1975. Since then, it has been lower than that of East Asia corresponding to a higher(prenominal) burden of youth dependency.Indeed, Indias demographic cycle now lags roughly 25 years behind that of East Asia. A purely demographic perspective suggests that the next three decades will be a period of catching up for India with respect to per capita income in East Asia. While these fertility scenarios have very different implications for the future age structure of Indias population, all three suggest further growth in the working-age share. Under the low- fertility scenario, according to which the total fertility rate will drop to 1. 4 by 2030, India is expected to reach a higher working-age ratio than ever se en in East Asia.The medium scenario shows India reaching a ratio nearly as high as East Asias high point, and the high scenario shows a very modest increase over todays ratio in India. In sum, the medium- and low-fertility scenarios bode well with respect to Indias potential for realizing a sizable demographic dividend, representing what could amount to an supererogatory percentage point or more of per capita income growth, compounded year after year. This is not an insignificant amount, addicted that the annual rate of growth of Indias real income per capita median(a)d a little over 4% during the past three decades (World Bank, 2010).As an aside, it should be noted that Indias demographic indicators are similar to those of the South Asian region as a whole. Compared with the two other large South Asian countries, it is ahead of Pakistan in the demographic transition, but behind Bangladesh. An additive demographic fact deserves mention there are an estimated 11. 4 million Indian s living outside of India. The countries to which Indians have emigrated in largest numbers, as of 2010, are United Arab Emirates (2. 2 million), the United States (1. 7 million), Saudi Arabia (1. 5 million), and Bangladesh (1. 1 million).In 2000, 57,000 Indian physicians were living overseas. In 2010, Indian emigrants are estimated to be send home remittances totaling $55 billion, the most of any country, constituting about 4. 5% of GDP. (Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal, 2011) The number of Indian immigrants in the United States has grown apace in recent years (there were 1. 0 million in 2000). Their median age is 37, and just over half are female. Nearly three-quarters have at least a lives degree, and nearly half work in professional occupations. Mean personal income (in 2008 dollars) is $53,000, and median household income is $92,000. United States Bureau of the Census, International Data Base (2008 midyear estimates). As political, economic, and societal conditions change over time in India and its neighbors, the number of migrants, the skills they take to other countries, and the value of the remittances they send may change significantly. DEMOGRAPHIC mental representation * INTERSTATE DIFFERENCE The projected values for the total population in different regions is shown in the Figure 2. 10. 3. there are marked differences between states in size of the population, projected population growth rates and the time by which TFR of 2. 1 is akinly to be achieved.If the present trend continues, most of the southern and the westward states are promising to achieve TFR of 2. 1 by 2010. Urgent energetic travel to assess and to the full meetin approachability and access to service are needed in the unmet ask for maternal and child health Rajasthan, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh (MCH) interest and contraception through improvement and Bihar (before division) in order to achieve a faster decline in their mortality and fertility rates. The performan ce of these states would determine the year and size of the population at which the country achieves aster decline in their mortality and fertility rates.The performance of these states would determine the year and size of the population at which the country achieves replacement level of fertility. It is imperative that special efforts are do during the next two decades to break the vicious self- perpetuating cycle of despicable performance, pitiful per capita income, scantness, low literacy and high birth rate in the populous states so that further widening of disparities between states in term of per capita income and quality of life is prevented. An Empowered Action Group has been set up to provide special assistance to these states.The benefits accrued from much(prenominal) assistance will depend to a large extent on the states ability to utilize the available funds and improve run and facilities. * GENDER BIAS The reported decline in the sex ratio during the current ce ntury has been a cause for concern (Figure 2. 10. 4). The factors responsible for this continued decline are as yet not all the way identified. However, it is well recognised that the adverse sex ratio is a reflection of gender disparities. There is an urgent need to ensure that all sectors collect and report sex disaggregated data.This will help in observe for evidence of gender disparity. Continued collection, collation, analysis and reporting of sex disaggregated data from all socialoffence. However, unless there is a change in social sectors will also provide a mechanism to monitorattitudes, these commands cannot achieve the whether girlfriends and women have equal access todesired change. Intensive community education these services. In the 0-6 age group show wide inter-state differences (Figure 2. 10. 5). In addition, data indicate that over the last three decades there has been a decline in the 0-6 sex ratio . Table 2. 10. 2) There had been speculation as to whether fema le sex determination tests and selective female feticide are, at least in part responsible for this. The Government of India has enacted a legislation banning the prenatal sex determination and selective abortion while female infanticide is a cognizable efforts to combat these practices, peculiarly in pockets from where female infanticide and foeticide have been reported, are urgently required. The National Family Health go off clearly brought out the sex differentials in the neonatal, post neonatal, infant and under five mortality rates .As there is no biological reason for the higher mortality among the girl children these differences are an indication of subsisting gender bias in caring for the girl child (Figure 2. 10. 5a). In the reproductive age-groups, the mortality rates among women are higher than those among men. The continued high maternal mortality is one of the major factors responsible for this. efficient executing of the RCH programme is expected to result in a s ubstantial decrease in maternal mortality. Currently, the longevity at birth among women is only marginally higher than that among men.However, the difference in life expectancy between men and women will progressively increase over the next decade. Once the reproductive age group is crossed, the mortality rates among women are lower. Women will OUTNUMBER men in over 60 age group Departments of Health, Family Welfare and Women and Child Development are initiating steps to ensure that these women get the care they need. CHAPTER 3 CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH BIRTH RATE * POVERTY According to ABC News, India before long faces approximately 33 births a minute, 2,000 an hour, 48,000 a day, which calculates to nearly 12 million a year.Unfortunately, the resources do not increase as the population increases. Instead the resources keep decreasing, take to making survival for a human being more and more competitive even for the basic necessities of life like sustenance, clothing and sh elter. ?India currently faces a vicious cycle of population explosion and poverty. One of the most important reasons for this population increase in India is poverty. According to Geography. com, More than 300 million Indians earn less than US $1 everyday and about 130 million people are jobless. The people, who have to struggle to make two ends meet produce more children because more children mean more earning hands. Also, due to poverty, the infant mortality rate among such(prenominal) families is higher due to the lack of facilities like regimen and medical exam resources. Thus, they produce more children assuming that not all of them would be able to survive. The end result is a mounting increase in the population size of India. Due to the increase in population, the problems of scarce resources, jobs, and poverty increases.Thus the cycle continues leading to an ever-increasing population that we see today. This cycle in fact might be considered as a positive feedback, in tha t the increase in one results in the increase of the other factor. As the poverty and the population both increase, the development of the country and the society seems even more far-fetched.? * Religious beliefs, Traditions and Cultural Norms? Indias culture runs very turbid and far back in history. Due to the increased population, the educational facilities are very scarce.As a result, most people still strictly follow ancient beliefs. According to ABC News, the famous Indian author, Shobha De said, theology said Go forth and produce and we just went ahead and did exactly that. In addition, a lot of families prefer having a son rather than a daughter. As a result, a lot of families have more children than they actually want or can afford, resulting in increased poverty, lack of resources, and most importantly, an increased population. ?Another one of Indias cultural norms is for a girl to get married at an early age.In most of the rural areas and in some urban areas as well, fa milies prefer to get their girls married at the age of 14 or 15. Although child marriage is illegal in India, the culture and the society contact the girls in India does not allow them to oppose such decisions taken by their family. For many, giving a girl child in marriage is done not by choice, but rather out of compulsion. The poor economic status of tribal villagers is attributed as one of the primary factors responsible for the prevalence of child marriages in India.An example of one such incident was reported in Indiainfo. com. According to an article written by Syed Zarir Hussain on October 16th, 2000, Forty-two-year-old Rojo Tok, a tribal peasant in Arunachal Pradesh, was all decked up in local finery to tie Mepong Taku, a girl who will turn 14 this winter. ? I was brought up in a very different environment and never had to worry about getting married at the age of 14 or 15. However, my parents turned their eyes away, when my maidservants daughter was being married off wh en she was only 13 years old.I was very young, but my parents simply said, Thats just how things are with poor people and I did not have a say in it. Due to the young age of these girls, they have more potential of bearing children, that is, since they start bearing children at a very early age, they can have more children throughout their lifetime. This results in the increase of the global fertility rate. Since these girls get married at a very early age, they do not have the opportunity to get educated. Therefore, they remain uninstructed and teach the same norms to their own children, and the tradition goes on from one generation to the other. DEATH RATE Although poverty has increased and the development of the country continues to be hampered, the improvements in medical facilities have been tremendous. This improvement might be considered positive, but as far as population increase is considered, it has only been positive in terms of increasing the population further. The cru de death rate in India in 1981 was approximately 12. 5, and that decreased to approximately 8. 7 in 1999. Also, the infant mortality rate in India decreased from 129 in 1981 to approximately 72 in 1999 (Mapsindia. com, Internet).These numbers are clear indications of the improvements in the medical field. This development is good for the economy and society of India, but strictly in terms of population, this advancement has further enhanced the increase in population. ?The bonny life expectancy of people in India has increased from 52. 9 in 1975-80 to 62. 4 in 1995-00. Although our near and dear ones would live longer, due to the increase in the population, the resources available per person would be much less, leading to a decrease in the curvature of the slope of development instead of a higher gradient.In addition, abortion is not allowed by several religions that are followed in India. In fact, in Islam, one of the leading religions of India, children are considered to be gifts of God, and so the more children a woman has, the more she is respected in her family and society. As a result, although the measures to control birth are either not available or known to the public, the facilities to increase birth through medical facilities are available.? MIGRATION? In countries like the United States (U. S. ), immigration plays an important role in the population increase.However, in countries like India, immigration plays a very small role in the population change. Although people from neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal, migrate to India at the same time Indians migrate to other countries like the U. S. , Australia, and the U. K. During the 1971 war between India and Pakistan over Bangladesh, the immigration rate increased tremendously. However, currently the migration in India is 0. 08 migrants per 1000 population (AskJeeves. com, Internet), and is decreasing further.This is definitely good for India. This way, the population might even tually come stringent to being under control and more people may get better job opportunities and further education. For example, the students in my university from India, like myself, have better chances for job opportunities and better education outside India than we would have had in India. CHAPTER 4 blow OF POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH During the past decade, there have been two significant breakthroughs regarding the clash of demographics on national economic performance.The first has to do with the effect of the changing age structure of a population. The second relates to population health. Demographers use the demographic transition as a starting point for explaining this effect. The demographic transition refers to the nearly ubiquitous change countries undergo from a regime of high fertility and high mortality to one of low fertility and low mortality. As this phenomenon tends to occur in an asynchronous fashion, with death rates declining first and birth rates fo llowing later, countries often experience a transitional period of rapid population growth.This period has traditionally been the main focus of economists interested in demographics. But population growth is not the only major solution of the demographic transition. The age structure is also transformed. This happens initially as a consequence of a baby demolish that occurs at the beginning of the transition. The baby boom is not caused by an increase in births, but rather by the sharply reduced rates of infant and child mortality that are characteristic of the beginning of a demographic transition, mainly due to increased access to vaccines, antibiotics, safe piss, and sanitation.This type of baby boom starts with higher survival rates and abates when fertility subsequently declines as couples recognize that fewer births are needed to reach their targets for surviving children, and as those targets are subsided. Baby booms are very consequential economically, because the presen ce of more children requires that there be more resources for nourishment, clothing, housing, medical care, and schooling. Those resources must be diverted from other uses such as building factories, establishing infrastructure, and investing in inquiry and development.This diversion of resources to current consumption can temporarily slow the process of economic growth. Of course, babies born in such a boom will invariably reach working ages within a period of 15-25 years. When this happens, the productive capacity of the economy expands on a per capita basis and a demographic dividend may be within reach. Environmental and ecological consequences The already dumbly populated developing countries contribute to over 95% of the population growth and rapid population growth could lead to environmental decline.Developed countries are less densely populated and contribute very little to population growth however, they cause massive ecological legal injury by the wasteful, unnecessa ry and un sense of equilibriumd consumption the consequences of which could adversely affect both the developed and the developing countries. The come off on Promotion of sustainable development challenges for environmental policies in the Economic Survey 1998-99 had covered in detail the major environmental problems, and policy options for improvement the present review will only in brief touch upon some of the important ecological consequences of demographic transition.In many developing countries continued population growth has resulted in pressure on land, fragmentation of land holding, collapsing fisheries, shrinking forests, rising temperatures, loss of plant and carnal species. Global warming due to increasing use of fossil fuels (mainly by the developed countries) could have adept effects on the populous coastal regions in developing countries, their intellectual nourishment production and ingrained piss supplies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has proj ected that, if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, the mean global surface temperature will rise from 1 to 3. degrees Celsius in the next century. The panels best estimate scenario projects a sea-level rise of 15 to 95 centimeters by 2100. The ecological violation of rising oceans would include increased flooding, coastal erosion, salination of aquifers and coastal crop land and displacement of millions of people living near the coast. Patterns of precipitation are also likely to change, which combined with increased average temperatures, could comfortably alter the relative agricultural productivity of different regions.Greenhouse gas emissions are closely linked to both population growth and development. Slower population growth in developing countries and ecologically sustainable lifestyles in developed countries would make decline in green house gas emission easier to achieve and provide more time and options for adaptation to humor change. Rapid population gr owth, developmental activities either to meet the growing population or the growing needs of the population as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns pose major challenge to preservation and promotion of ecological balance in India.Some of the major ecological adverse effects reported in India include severe pressure on the forests due to both the rate of resource use and the spirit of use. The per capita forest biomass in the country is only about 6 tons as against the global average of 82 tons. adverse effect on species diversity conversion of habitat to some other land use such as agriculture, urban development, forestry operation. Some 70-80 % of fresh peeing marshes and lakes in the Gangetic flood plains has been woolly in the last 50 years.Tropical deforestation and destruction of mangroves for commercial needs and fuel wood. The countrys mangrove areas have reduced from 700,000 ha to 453,000 ha in the last 50 years. Intense sliver by domestic livestock Poach ing and illegal harvesting of wildlife. Increase in agricultural area, high use of chemical fertilizers pesticides and weedicides water stagnation, soil erosion, soil salt and low productivity. High level of biomass longing causing large-scale indoor pollution. Encroachment on habitat for rail and road construction thereby fragmenting the habitat. ncrease in commercial activities such as mining and unsustainable resource extraction. Degradation of coastal and other aquatic ecosystems from domestic sewage, pesticides, fertilizers and industrial effluents. Over fishing in water bodies and introduction of weeds and exotic species. diversion of water for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses leading to increased river pollution and decrease in self-cleaning properties of rivers. Increasing water requirement leading to tapping deeper aquifers which have high content of arsenic or fluoride resulting health problems.Disturbance from increased inexpert activity and tourism causing pollution of natural ecosystems with wastes left behind by people. The United Nations gathering on Environment and Development (1992) acknowledged population growth, rising income levels, changing technologies, increasing consumption pattern will all have adverse impact on environment. Ensuring that there is no further deterioration depends on choices made by the population about family size, life styles, environmental protection and equity.Availability of appropriate engineering science and commitment towards ensuring sustainable development is increasing throughout the world. Because of these, it might be possible to initiate steps to see that the natural carrying capacity of the environment is not damaged beyond recovery and ecological balance is to a large extent maintained. It is imperative that the environmental sustainability of all developmental projects is taken care of by appropriate inputs at the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation stages. UrbanizationTh e proportion of people in developing countries who live in cities has almost doubled since 1960 (from less than 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent), while in more developed regions the urban share has grown from 61 per cent to 76 per cent. Urbanization is projected to continue well into the next century. By 2030, it is expected that nearly 5 billion (61 per cent) of the worlds 8. 1 billion people will live in cities. India shares this global trend toward urbanization. Globally, the number of cities with 10 million or more inhabitants is increasing rapidly, and most of these new megacities are in developing regions.In 1960, only New York and Tokyo had more than 10 million people. By 1999, the number of megacities had grown to 17(13 in developing countries). It is projected that there will be 26 megacities by 2015, (18 in Asia of these five in India) more than 10 per cent of the worlds population will live in these cities (1. 7% in 1950). Indias urban population has doubled from 109 million to 218 million during the last two decades and is estimated to reach 300 million by 2000 AD. As a consequence cities are liner the problem of expanding urban slums. Like many other demographic changes, urbanization has both positive and negative effects.Cities and towns have become the engines of social change and rapid economic development. Urbanisation is associated with improved access to education, employment, health care these result in increase in age at marriage, reduction in family size and improvement in health indices. As people have moved towards and into cities, knowledge has flowed outward. Better communication and transportation now link urban and rural areas both economically and socially creating an urban-rural continuum of communities with improvement in some aspects of lifestyle of both. The ever increasing reach of mass media communicate new ideas, points f reference, and available options are becoming more wide recognized, appreciated and sought. This phenomenon has affected health care, including reproductive health, in many ways. For instance, radio and television programmes that discuss gender equity, family size preference and family planning options are now reaching formerly isolated rural populations. This can create demand for services for mothers and children, higher contraceptive use, and fewer unwanted pregnancies, smaller healthier families and lead to more rapid population stabilisation. But the rapid growth of urban population also poses some serious challenges.Urban population growth has outpaced the development of basic minimum services housing, water supply, sewerage and solid waste disposal are far from adequate increasing waste generation at home, offices and industries, coupled with poor waste disposal facilities result in rapid environmental deterioration. Increasing automobiles add to air pollution. All these have adverse effect on ecology and health. Poverty persists in urban and peri-urban areas awareness a bout the glaring inequities in close urban setting may lead to social unrest. Rural population and their developmentOver seventy per cent of Indias population still lives in rural areas. There are substantial differences between the states in the proportion of rural and urban population (varying from almost 90 per cent in Assam and Bihar to 61 per cent in Maharashtra). Agriculture is the largest and one of the most important sector of the rural economy and contributes both to economic growth and employment. Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product has declined over the last five decades but agriculture still remains the source of livelihood for over 70 per cent of the countrys population.A large proportion of the rural work force is small and consists of marginal farmers and landless agricultural labourers. There is substantial under employment among these people both wages and productivity are low. These in turn result in poverty it is estimated that 320 million people are st ill living below the poverty line in rural India. Though poverty has declined over the last three decades, the number of rural poor has in fact increased due to the population growth. Poor tend to have larger families which puts enormous burden on their meagre resources, and prevent them from breaking out of the shackles of poverty.In States like Tamil Nadu where replacement level of fertility has been attained, population growth rates are much lower than in many other States but the population density is high and so there is a pressure on land. In States like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh population is growing rapidly, resulting in increasing pressure on land and resulting land fragmentation. Low productivity of small land holders leads to poverty, low energy intake and under sustainment, and this, in turn, prevents the development thus creating a vicious circle.In most of the states non-farm employment in rural areas has not grown very much and cannot catch the growing labour force. Those who are getting educated specially beyond the primary level, may not wish to do manual agricultural work. They would like better opportunities and more remunerative employment. In this context, it is imperative that programmes for skill development, vocational training and technical education are taken up on a large scale in order to generate productive employment in rural areas.The entire gamut of existing poverty alleviation and employment generation programmes may have to be restructured to meet the newly emerging types of demand for employment. Rural poor have inadequate access to basic minimum services, because of poor connectivity, lack of awareness, inadequate and poorly functional infrastructure. There are ongoing efforts to improve these, but with the growing aspirations of the younger, educated population these efforts may prove to be inadequate to meet the increasing needs both in terms of type and quality of services.Greater education, a wareness and better standard of living among the growing younger age group population would create the required consciousness among them that smaller families are desirable if all the felt needs for health and family welfare services are fully met, it will be possible to enable them to attain their reproductive goals, achieve substantial decline in the family size and improve quality of life. Water Supply In many split of developed and developing world, water demand substantially exceeds sustainable water supply.It is estimated that currently 430 millions (8% of the global population) are living in countries affected by water stress by 2020 about one fourth of the global population may be facing degenerative and recurring shortage of fresh water. In India, water withdrawal is estimated to be twice the rate of aquifer recharge as a result water tables are falling by one to three meters every year tapping deeper aquifers have resulted in larger population groups being exposed to new er health hazards such as high fluoride or arsenic content in drinking water.At the other end of the spectrum, unjustified use of water has led to water logging and increasing salinity in some parts of the country. Eventually, both lack of water and water logging could have adverse impact on Indias food production. There is very little arable agricultural land which remains unexploited and in many areas, agricultural technology improvement may not be able to ensure further increase in yield per hectare. It is, therefore, imperative that research in biotechnology for improving development of food shreds strains that would tolerate salinity and those which would require less water gets high priority.Simultaneously, a movement towards making water harvesting, storage and its need based use part of every citizens life should be taken up. Food security technical innovations in agriculture and increase in area under cultivation have ensured that so far, food production has kept pace with the population growth. Evolution of global and national food security systems have improved access to food. It is estimated that the global population will grow to 9 billion by 2050 and the food production will double improvement in purchasing power and changing dietary habits (shift to physical products) may further add to the requirement of food grains.Thus, in the next five decades, the food and nutrition security could become critical in many parts of the world especially in the developing countries and pockets of poverty in the developed countries. In India one of the major achievements in the last fifty years has been the green revolution and self- sufficiency in food production. Food grain production has increased from 50. 82 in 1950-51 to 200. 88 million tons in 1998-99 (Prov. ). It is a event of concern that while the food grain production has been growing steadily at a rate higher than the population growth rates, the rude grain and pulse production has not shown a si milar increase.Consequently there has been a reduction in the per capita availability of pulses (from 60. 7 grams in 1951 to 34 grams per day in 1996) and roughhewn grains. Over the last five decades there has been a decline in the per capita availability of pulses. During the last few years the country has merchandise pulses to meet the requirement. There has been a sharp and sustained increase in comprise of pulses, so there is substantial decline in per capita pulses consumption among poorer segment of population.This in turn could have an adverse impact on their protein intake. The pulse component of the Pulses and Oil Seeds Mission need to receive a major pig out in terms of RD and other inputs, so that essential pulse requirement of growing population is fully met. come up bell of pulses had a beneficial effect also. Till eighties in central India wages of landless labourers were given in the form Kesari Dal which was cheaper than cereals or coarse grains. drug addictio n of staple diet of Kesari Dal led to crippling disease of neuro lathyrism.Over the last three decades the rising be of pulses has made Kesari Dal more expensive than wheat or strain and hence it is no longer given to labourers as wages for work done as a result the disease has virtually disappeared from Central India. Over years the coarse grain production has remained stagnant and per capita availability of coarse grain has under gone substantial reduction there has been a shift away from coarse grains to rice and wheat consumption even among poorer segment of population. One of the benefits of this change is virtual elimination of pellagra which was widely prevalent mong low income group population in Deccan Plateau whose staple food was sorghum. Coarse grains are less expensive than rice and wheat they can thus provide higher calories for the same cost as compared to rice and wheat. Coarse grains which are locally produced and procured if made available through TPDS at subsid ise rate, may not only substantially bring down the subsidy cost without any reduction in calories provided but also improve targetting as only the most needy are likely to access these coarse grains.Another area of concern is the lack of sufficient focus and thrust in horticulture because of this, availability of vegetables especially green leafy vegetables and yellow/red vegetables throughout the year at affordable cost both in urban and rural areas has remained an unfulfilled dream. Health and nutrition education emphasizing the immensity of consuming these inexpensive rich sources of micronutrients will not result in any change in food habits unless there is harnessing and effective management of horticultural resources in the country to meet the growing needs of the people at affordable cost.States like Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh have initiated some efforts in this direction similar efforts need be taken up in other states also. provender At the time of independence the country faced two major nutritionary problems one was the threat of famine and acute starvation due to low agricultural production and lack of appropriate food distribution system. The other was chronic energy deficiency due to poverty, low-literacy, poor access to safe-drinking water, sanitation and health care these factors led to wide spread prevalence of infections and ill health in children and adults.Kwashiorkor, marasmus, goitre, beri beri, blindness due to Vitamin-A deficiency and anaemia were major public health problems. The country adopted multi-sectoral, multi-pronged strategy to combat the major nutritionary problems and to improve nutritional status of the population. During the last 50 years considerable progress has been achieved. Famines no longer stalk the country. There has been substantial reduction in moderate and severe undernutrition in children and some improvement in nutritional status of all segments of population.Kwashiorkor, marasmus, pellagra, lathyri sm, beri beri and blindness due to severe Vitamin-A deficiency have become rare. However, it is a matter of concern that milder forms of Chronic Energy Deficiency (CED) and micronutrient deficiencies continue to be widely prevalent in adults and children. In view of the fact that population growth in India will continue for the next few decades, it is essential that appropriate strategies are devised to improve food and nutrition security of families, identify individuals/families with severe forms of CED and provide them assistance to over come these problemOperational strategy to improve the dietary intake of the family and improve nutritional status of the rapidly growing adult population would include Ensuring adequate agricultural production of cereals, pulses, vegetables and other foodstuffs needed to fully meet the requirement of growing population. Improving in purchasing power through employment generation and employment assurance schemes Providing subsidised food grains t hrough TPDS to the families below poverty line. Exploring feasibility of providing subsidized coarse grains to families Below Poverty Line (BPL) Operational strategies to improve health and nutritional status of the growing numbers of women and children include * Pregnant and lactating women screening to identify women with weight below 40 Kgs and ensuring that they/ their preschool children receive food supplements through Integrated Child Development Services Scheme (ICDS) adequate antenatal intrapartum and neonatal care. 0-6 months infants Nutrition education for early initiation of lactation protection and promotion of universal dummy feeding, exclusive breast feeding for the first six months unless there is specific reason supplementation should not be introduced before 6 months and immunization, growth monitoring and health care. * Well planned nutrition education to ensure that the infants and children do continue to get breasted, get appropriate cereal pulse vegetable bas ed supplement federal official to them at least 3 4 times a day , appropriate help in ensuring this through family/community/work place support and immunisation and health care. Children in the 0 5 age group screen by weighment to identify children with moderate and severe undernutrition , provide double cadence supplements through ICD , screening for nutrition and health problems and appropriate intervention. * Primary school children weigh and identify those with moderate and severe chronic energy deficiency, improve dietary intake to these children through the mid-day meal. Monitor for improvement in the identified undernourished infants, children and mothers if no improvement after 2 months refer to physician for identification and give-and-take of factors that might be responsible for lack of improvement. * Nutrition education on varying dietary needs of different members of the family and how they can be met by minor modifications from the family meals. Intensive health education for improving the life style of the population coupled with active screening and management of the health problems associated with obesity. chapter 5 Strategies to Achieve Population StabilizationFertility decline in India has been the effect of various socio-economic developments as well as government sponsored family welfare programme. Rising levels of education, increase in female age at marriage, influence of mass media, economic development, gender say-so and measures for equality, continuing urbanization, diffusion of new idea, and declines in infant and child mortality have all contributed in lowering the levels of fertility. These factors, along with strong health infrastructure and focused family welfare programme, will continue to be driving the fertility transition.Even at the national level, the views regarding the ideal number of children are fast approaching the two child norm. But at the same time, preference for sons is clearly evident in many parts of In dia. The regional difference in fertility level is also likely to continue for many more years. Given this context, what are the strategies that can be adopted to achieve the population stabilization within a reasonable time period? National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) Recognizing the importance of health for social and economic development and for improving the quality of life, the Govt. f India launched the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to carry out the necessary correction and strengthening of basic health care delivery system. The Plan of Action of NRHM envisages increasing public expenditure on health, reducing regional imbalances in health infrastructure, pooling resources, desegregation of organizational structures, optimization of health manpower, decentralization and district management of health programmes, community participation and will power of assets and providing public- private partnership.The goal of the mission is to improve the availability of an d access to quality health care of the people, especially for those residing in rural areas, the poor, woman and children. The expected outcomes from the Mission as reflected in statistical data are IMR reduced to 30/1000 live births by 2012. Maternal Mortality reduced to 100/100,000 live births by 2012. TFR reduced to 2. 1 by 2012. Malaria Mortality reducing Rate 50% up to 2010, additional 10% by 2012. Kala Azar Mortality diminution Rate 100% by 2010 and sustaining elimination ntil 2012. * Filarial/Microfilaria Reduction Rate 70% by 2010, 80% by 2012 and elimination by 2015. * Dengue Mortality Reduction Rate 50% by 2010 and sustaining at that level until 2012 * Cataract operations-increasing to 46 lakhs until 2012. * Leprosy Prevalence Rate reduce from 1. 8 per 10,000 in 2005 to less than 1 per 10,000 thereafter. * Tuberculosis DOTS series maintain 85% cure rate through entire Mission Period and also sustain planned case detection rate. Upgrading all federation Health Cent ers to Indian Public Health Standards. tilization of First Referral Units from bed occupancy by referred cases of less than 20% to over 75%. * Engaging 4,00,000 female Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs). The NRHM (2005-12) seeks to provide effective health care to rural population throughout the country with specific focus on 18 states that have faint-hearted public health indicators and poor health infrastructure. National Population polity The immediate mark of the National Population Policy is to meet all the unmet needs for contraception and health care for women and children.The medium-term objective is to bring the TFR to replacement level (TFR of 2. 1) by 2010 and, the long-term objective is to achieve population stabilisation by 2045. The Policy has set the following goals for 2010 * universal registration of births and deaths, marriages and pregnancies * universal access to information/counselling and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wi de basket of choices * to reduce the IMR to below 30 per 1,000 live births and a sharp reduction in the incidence of low birth weight (below 2. kg. ) * universal immunisation of children against vaccine preventable diseases * promote delayed marriage for girls, not earlier than the age of 18 and preferably after 20 years * achieve 80 per cent institutional deliveries and increase the percentage of deliveries conducted by trained persons to 100 per cent * containing of STD reduction in MMR to less than 100 per 100,000 * universalisation of primary education and reduction in the drop-out rates at the primary and secondary levels to below 20 per cent for both boys and girls.Several states/districts have demonstrated that the steep reduction in mortality and fertility envisaged in the National Population Policy are technically feasible within the existing infrastructure and manpower. All efforts are being made to provide essential supplies, improve efficiency and ensure accountability especially in the states where performance is currently sub- optimal so that there is incremental improvement in performance.An Empowered Action Group habituated to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has been constituted in 2001 to facilitate capacity building in poorly playing states/districts so that they attain the goals set in the Policy. If all these efforts are vigorously pursued it is possible that the driven goals set for 2007/2010 may be achieved. National Commission on Population The National Commission on Population adopting the small family norm was constituted on 11 May 2000 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister. The representative Chairman of the Planning Commission is the vice chairman.The Commission has the mandate to * review, monitor and give direction for the implementation of the National Population Policy with the view of achieving the goals it has set * promote synergy between health, educational, environmental developmental programmes so as to hasten population stabilization * promote inter-sectoral coordination in planning and implementation of the programmes through different agencies at the Centre and in the states and * develop a vigorous peoples programme to support this national effort.A Strategic Support Group consisting of secretaries of concerned sectoral ministries has been constituted as a standing advisory group to the Commission. Nine working groups were constituted to look into specific aspects of implementation of the programmes aimed at achieving the targets set in the National Population Policy. NCP has allocated funds for action plans drawn up by district magistrates in poorly performing districts to implement programmes aimed at accelerating the pace decline in fertility.Meeting the unmet demand for contraception The NPP chronicle lays great stress on meeting the unmet need for contraception as an instrument to achieve population stabilization. The presence of high level of unmet need for contracep tion in EAG states is not a myth, as it is support by data from both NFHS and DLHS. But it would be a mistake to assume that inadequate access to services should be the dominant, or even a major, explanatory factor for its presence.As a carefully conducted in depth investigation in the Philippines had shown, unmet need for contraception could arise from several reasons, such as weak motivation, low female autonomy, perceived health risks, and moral objection to the use of contraception. The elimination of these factors, and thus the unmet need, could prove to be as difficult as generating fresh demand for contraception. According to the DLHS Round 2 (2002-2004) 21 percent of women in India have an unmet need for family planning.The unmet need for limiting is higher (13 percent) as compared to unmet need for spacing (9 percent). Total unmet need is highest among the younger women an